Health Burden and economic impacts attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in china from 2010 to 2050 under different representative concentration pathway scenarios

Quantifying the future health burden attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in China is challenging when jointly accounting for emissions, climate, population changes. Future burdens caused by PM2.5 O3 remain largely understudied. In this study, Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) was used calculate concentrations from 2010 2050 under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5. Then O3-related premature mortality years of life lost (YLL) period were projected. The resulting economic burdens, such as medical expenses (ME) value statistical (VSL) 2010–2050 disease on O3, estimated. results show that will change -31.5% 14.5% compared those among different RCP -13.5% 9.4% changes PM2.5-related -25.7% 0.6% YLL. For concentration vary -13.3% 3.7% 2050, contributing -26.9% 13.1% -48.8% 4.0% lowest impacts occur RCP4.5 scenario both pollutants. 2010, ME $6.3–6.5 billion, VSL $112.1–114.9 2.9–3.0% total GDP ($3874 billion). By -19.7% - 17.5% -65.5% 136.6%, respectively. This study suggested RCP2.6 scenarios can have significant benefits. However, given be higher than baseline more aggressive air pollution mitigation measures are required China.